Saturday, May 28, 2011
Is Australia RBA in Australia ??
(click on picture for bigger image)Global Interest Rate looks set to rise.
Bank's capital adequacy ratio to go up.
Money supply will decreased.
Credit squeezed.
Meaning to say
Less money to lend out,
And lend at higher rate.
China already forecast that growth will slow,
Still at a high rate but slower.
Anyway RBA, is saying in a nutshell is, ALTHOUGH,
Interest rates, global interest rates will rise,
Housing & Commodities will still be ok.
2 of Australia's economy component
So,
Either the
RBA is reading a different economic report,
RBA Can't handle the truth
RBA Can't be the bearer of bad & painful news
RBA Can't be and don't want to be the bad guys
RBA is not in this world
RBA is not in Australia
I will leave this 3 article here, hopefully for everybody else that have mortgage to pay & still need a job, these words from RBA will not come back to haunt them
http://www.smh.com.au/
http://www.theaustralian.com.
China's Total Bank Depositors : 80% of total deposits in hands of 20%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fund_industry_in_the_People's_Republic_of_China
Against the background of China's fast growing economy, the number of hedge fund investors is increasing rapidly in the country, and the total amount of their wealth is increasing in step. By the end of June 2008, China's residents had RMB 19,460bn ($2,820bn) in bank deposits, of which 80% was in the name of 20% of the population.[citation needed] With such a huge amount of cash assets in hand, the wealthy's strong investment demand has provided hedge funds in China with a sufficient supply of capital. In addition, China's companies also have a huge sum of spare cash, which is also a primary source of capital for hedge funds
Arab Spring to get $20B
Free market economy. Innovation & creativity to follow.
Friday, May 27, 2011
DIA : Weekly Price Action
---------------------------------
Although upward trend is still firmly intact.
MA, price channel is still traveling upwards.
There might be some volatility in the near term.
$115 low on the trend channel may still be tested.
As Wave 4 of this current Wave.
DIA - Diamonds of Dow Jones Index
-----------------
Prices broke $125 support.
Gaped down to $123 lingered for 4 days.
Came up on Memorial Day weekend eve to retest the ex-support at $125.
Battle of bulls & bears begin.
-------------------------------------
Bears have the MA, declining volume, Support turn resistance line, downward sloping trend line and Doji candlestick moment of bull indecisiveness, in their favor.
Bulls have the upward turning O/S Stochs on their side.
Looking for more downward bias.
Japan Reversal of a long financial drought in the making ?
So the Trio Crisis has a silver lining after all. Ending the 25 months of deflation that feels more like 25years.
Seems like there is a tsunami of reversal here.
US interest rates going up. Ending cheap source of funding.
Global interest rates go up.
Oil prices comes down.
US$ goes up.
Equities come down (?)
S&P 500 trading above Historic average
in the making, but this time the signs are less obvious. U.S. stocks, despite having racked up a decade worth of typical gains in the 26 months after their recessionary low, do not look expensive. The S&P 500 trades at 15.3 times trailing earnings, only a smidgen above its historic average of 14.5.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
RedHat
Currently Prices is in. Wave C down.
In that wave C wave 4 is in progress which correspond to the low Stochs
And again don't confuse Stochs amplitude with price magnitude
A corrective wave.
Once Wave 4 is finished...another good entry to short
For target of $40 for gap to fill
Coca Cola : KO (?)
Current level may act as temporary support.
Double top with Bearish Divergence between Price & Stochs.
If price structure breaks...aim for $61.5
Afghan Riches : Spoils of War
1. Rare Earths
2. Gold
3. Copper
4. Iron
5. Lead
6. Zinc
A win win for the US and the Afghanistan people and Middle East as a whole.
May23 2011 : Fortune Magazine
Dubai's Disneyland
Like it or not, although USA may not be the largest economy in the future, it's icons are still something people aspire for. People that enjoy life do think of new ways to enjoy it and consuming more is part of that process which some may argue is the cause of the problem. Debatable.
Problem is credit. It's fiat money. Creating money by printing more "In God We Trust" - $US dollars which has these words inscribed on it. Like the song goes, making love out of nothing at all. But USA is a great consuming society & they know how to be one that demands the best out of their corporations ingenuity & creativity and of course the flip side of it is the ugly nature of human beings, greed.
That's another story by itself. The point here is no other country has come close in offering new products that the world desires with a passion consistently & universally.
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/dubai-needs-disneyland--boost-tourism-402200.html
Monetary Funds has grown up.
The mother of all Monetary Fund,
The International Monetary Fund
Then there is the Arab Monetary Fund for the Middle East.
The Latin American Reserve Fund for South Americas.
And 2 proposed :
Asian Monetary Fund which is in progress.
European Monetary Fund is in progress.
FASB : Reining In ETFs - Equities Funds.
Secondly, banks ratings got cut by S&P and Moody's
Thirdly, OECD urge banks to raise interest rates.
Fourthly, IASB in accord with Basel III wants to raise bank's capital ratio
Fifthly, Hedge Funds to be looked into for transparency.
And now,
Sixthly, FSB, financial stability board wants to regulate ETFs.
All of a sudden there is this craze in controlling risk.
All these cannot spell good for the Equities market.
Middleast Update : A Release Valve Open
RCL : Royal Carribean Cruises.
Prices remain below the 50 & 200 MA
Weekly EMA tested the MA20 and pulled away downwards.
Looking for prices to work itself lower
Amidst strong waves from the financial Mkt.
Money flow between Assets classes.
Are there better assets than equities ?
I think financial Mkt is like cash accounts nowadays.
Most liquid of assets.
Short of no other more liquid assets that generates a better return,
equities is the best place to be in.
However If there is another asset class that offers a better, safer return
Monies will flow out of equities.
It's kind of "safe haven"
However surplus monies are channeled to better pastures when one is found.
Like real tangible assets like Infrastructure, state businesses.
Countries Bonds.
Besides politicized money.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
RHT : RedHat : 200Days MA is to be respected.
The 200Day MA
Is to be respected.
No one pass thru without my permission.
The NorthEast Asia's Musketeer : Korea-Japan-China
One for All and All for One !
A formidable force to be reckon with.
However it's not for competition
But garnering of natural resources into a bloc.
Imagine what this group can do financially & culturally.
Culturally it is more homogeneous than say the South East Asia countries.
At least the NE Asia may have more link historically vs the SE Asian.
SE Asia still remains loosely knitted.
So the North will still influenced the South.
Be it in Europe, Americas or Asia.
And the West influenced the East.
In this regard, Singapore is trying her hardest for her voice not to be drowned.
As long as she plays the part of a global business center,
And a tax & regulatory haven for the global companies.
Regional Stock Exchanged
It joins the group of merged Stock Exchanges. London & Toronto. NYSE & EuroNext & potentially Deutsche Bourse.
Attempted but failed mergers include London & NASDAQ , ASX & SGX.
America & Europe as northern grouping.
Australia & Singapore as the Southern Asian grouping.
South America as one grouping.
Soon to be announced will be Middle East stock exchanges mergers.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chile-colombia-peru-launch-andean-stock-exchange-2011-05-25
--------
For companies aiming to raise funds, the integrated exchange will be able to increase the number of potential investors, said Alfredo Coutino, director of Latin American
Peru, whose main export is gold, and Chile, the world's largest copper producer, are expected to have the fastest rates of economic growth in Latin America this year, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting Peru's expansion at a rate of 7.5% and Chile's at 5.9%. The IMF expects the countries to lead growth in Latin America in 2012.
The Coming Money Sqeeze !
Central banks to up interest rate. Turning off the money tap. Era of cheap money coming to an end. Money supply to slow down. Volume of money disappearing.
Commercial banks ratings got cut. Australian banks,China banks and Euopean banks.So as to be less risky, higher capital ratio is needed. Again lesser money to lend out as more capital needed for reserve to meet the Basel III requirement as stated by ISAB. Volume of money diminish.
Speculative money will be dry up. Less money in the market.
Middle East Aid.
Aid to the ally countries. Sanction to the hostile.
A typical textbook carrot and stick approach to parenting.
Spare the rod, spoil the child.
Source : (unknown date)
http://www.publicradio.org/columns/marketplace/business-news-briefs/middle-east-us-aid-map-FINAL-corrected.jpg
Higher Bank Capital Ratios : IASB
Back track to April 10 2011, a private accounting board albeit international in nature, the International Accounting Standard's Board, states that Bank's capital ratio should be 30% higher probably after being consulted by BASEL III committee that sets banks capital ratios.
Meaning lesser money in the system. And the reverse of leveraging or deleveraging occurs. Just like if the boss keeps more in the kitty, there is less bonus, & less dividend to distribute. So lesser money or lesser credit, more recalling of loans, margin call, will send repercussion ripple effect through the market. Asset values will fall.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
GMCR : Green Moutain Coffee Roast
GMCR : Green Moutain Coffee Roast.
Has traced out 5 waves in the weekly, daily and hourly chart.
Its the final of the final wave in this drmatic rise.
A reversal has yet to be seen.
Stochastics are running into the O/B extremes.
Signalling a reversal is imminent but yet to be seen.
Yesterday open was a gap up, worked itself down in a couple of minutes
but formed a bearish dragonfly doji at end of day where the opening and closing price are the same on the hourly chart
Meaning to say, the bulls gave ways to the bear at the open but manage to trade themeselves up last minutes.
Expect to see a reversal candlestick pattern next few days.
This run is over subject to reversal.
Has traced out 5 waves in the weekly, daily and hourly chart.
Its the final of the final wave in this drmatic rise.
A reversal has yet to be seen.
Stochastics are running into the O/B extremes.
Signalling a reversal is imminent but yet to be seen.
Yesterday open was a gap up, worked itself down in a couple of minutes
but formed a bearish dragonfly doji at end of day where the opening and closing price are the same on the hourly chart
Meaning to say, the bulls gave ways to the bear at the open but manage to trade themeselves up last minutes.
Expect to see a reversal candlestick pattern next few days.
This run is over subject to reversal.
RedHat : RHT update
RedHat : aka RHT
Prices has broken 2 candles out of the Box consolidation from $45.
Topped is in place.
How far will price go ?
Next target $40 ??
$3 from here.
Stochastics is still pointing south on the daily chart.
Probably at the highest rate of descend at the moment.
On the hourly chart it already is scrapping the bottom.
Basicallys its on the outfield at the moment.
Given the situation it will not be surprising.
Target priority will be given to the wave formation and the moving averages.
$40 maybe touch and go.
Get ready to move in a heart beat !
Prices has broken 2 candles out of the Box consolidation from $45.
Topped is in place.
How far will price go ?
Next target $40 ??
$3 from here.
Stochastics is still pointing south on the daily chart.
Probably at the highest rate of descend at the moment.
On the hourly chart it already is scrapping the bottom.
Basicallys its on the outfield at the moment.
Given the situation it will not be surprising.
Target priority will be given to the wave formation and the moving averages.
$40 maybe touch and go.
Get ready to move in a heart beat !
Standard & Poors : The World Credit Rating Agency : Chin's Report
Why is an American company going round the world rating each countries' credit standing.
Who is setting thiese standards ? Who decides Who is poor ?
Standard & Poor aka as S&P.
Having said that China has entered the credit cycle that affects all modern banking system.
The day that commercial banks were allowed to lend and people allowed to borrow,
it has set in motion market cycle, credit cycle that eventually leads to a bubble just becasue
of human's need for expansion.
According to this article, S&P is not even saying IF a credit risk is imminent,
its saying watch out, its coming.
Its only a matter of degree and when it comes it will be not that bad.
Just like telling a child who is about to be given an injection.
Candies will be given to soothe the pain, but first the pain that will make you better and you get a
lolly even for something that is good for you.
Or like the father that has to spank you becasue you have overspend but who had not stop giving
you allowances everytime you ask.
China has been warning about surge in property prices, has put in measure to stop its dramatic rise. Cooling
credit growth is just like saying I am going to decrease the amount of money in the market. With lesser money, demand comes down, especially speculative demand not real demand.
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