Thursday, June 2, 2011

Thailand Political Rice

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/thai-rice-prices-seen-rising-50-as-thaksin-seeks-rural-votes.html

Yingluck Shinawatra's Pheu Thai party plans to reinstate a policy introduced by her brother, fugitive former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, to buy unmilled rice at 15,000 baht ($496) per metric ton, twice the current level. That would raise costs for exporters and boost the price of shipments to about $750 per ton from $500, according to a survey of eight millers and traders.

George Soros Top 5 Chinese Stocks

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/135034/george-soros-top-5-chinese-stocks-bidu-iss-fmcn-cisg-kh

Middle East talking the capitalist language. First job is to create job.

Middle East talking the capitalist language.

First job is to create job.
From Banking to Call center, to Aviation to Tourism to Port operation. Not to mention
Construction.

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http://www.emirates247.com/2.277/aviation/mideast-aviation-jobs-to-hit-2-million-2010-03-11-1.67426

The Middle East air transport sector is expected to support close to two million jobs in the region over the next 20 years, according to a study by Oxford Economics, a global research firm providing industry forecasts and economic advice.

At present, air transport directly employs and supports jobs for approximately 400,000 people in the Middle East, according to the report, and is expected to add another 750,000 jobs in the next 20 years, making a GDP (gross domestic product) contribution of $50 billion (Dh183.64bn). It will support an additional 1.2 million jobs and $35bn of GDP in the tourism sector, the report pointed out.

DP World : First FTSE 100's Arab company

http://www.ifw-net.com/freightpubs/ifw/index/and-finally-out/20017877419.htm

The government-controlled company, which is already listed on the Nasdaq Dubai, is now the first company from the Middle East to join the FTSE 100.

Despite the company not raising any new capital as part of the listing, it said: "The aim is to provide an additional platform to invest in DP World shares to help attract a broader range of investors."

DP World shares will continue to trade under DP World's existing listing on Nasdaq Dubai with its shares being fully interchangeable across both exchanges.

Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Chairman of DP World, described the day as a "milestone".

"DP World is the only listed global port operator and we are delighted to be listed on the LSE offering more investors the opportunity to invest in our unique company," he said.

YingLuck Shinawatra - Not just A Pretty Face !

Not just a pretty face !

Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of Thakshin Shinawatra who now lives the high life in Dubai.
Yingluck is running for government in next month Thailand's election.

Good luck, YingLuck !

Arab Economy, Unemployment, Banks & Call Centers.

Arab Banks, the lubricant of the economy are recruited to get the SME the engine of Economic growth going. And Call Centers is one industry earmarked for growth. And any labour intensive industry to absorb the large proportion of unemployed youth.

http://www.thenational.ae/business/banking/banks-told-to-help-small-firms-to-create-jobs-across-arab-world

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

NSW Ferries For Sale ! The Game Begins !

The Great Privatisation Game begins.
From Federal to State owned companies.
Sell the public assets, to pay off debt.

While Goverment sit on cash,
Public services are run by private for profit companies
Which may be foreign entities & more likey than not.

So funds flow from Equities to Public Infrastructure Investments,
Packaged it up and auction it off via IPO,
Cash out and return the assets to the people via shares in the publicly
Listed company.

And repeat the process.

So for the Sydneysiders who vote for the politicians accordingly as to how
they deem the State should be run and maybe even how the Ferry should be run.
Will in the future, not for the politicians but the CEO of the NSW Ferry Inc
If they have enough financial clout and muscle,
If not just shut up and enjoy the ride.
for the Assets like NSW Ferry will be owned by Funds A to Z.
which the cross borders stock exchange will entice capital globally.

We will soon be like money.
Borderless.


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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303745304576358520730432288.html

New South Wales is keen to reduce its infrastructure commitments as it grapples with more than 12.2 billion Australian dollars (US$13.03 billion) in net debt. The state recently appointed Nick Greiner, a former premier, as its infrastructure chief with a view toward attracting more private money and investment from sovereign-wealth funds.

“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner,” says hedge fund legend Mark Mobius,

http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/06/01/the-next-financial-crisis-will-be-hellish-and-its-on-its-way/

"There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner," says hedge fund legend Mark Mobius, "because we haven't solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis."

We're raising our alert status for the next financial crisis. We already raised it last week after spreads on U.S. credit default swaps started blowing out. We raised it again after seeing the remarks of Mr. Mobius, chief of the $50 billion emerging markets desk at Templeton Asset Management.

Speaking in Tokyo, he pointed to derivatives, the financial hairball of futures, options, and swaps in which nearly all the world's major banks are tangled up.

Estimates on the amount of derivatives out there worldwide vary. An oft-heard estimate is $600 trillion. That squares with Mobius' guess of 10 times the world's annual GDP. "Are the derivatives regulated?" asks Mobius. "No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes."

In other words, something along the lines of securitized mortgages is lurking out there, ready to trigger another crisis as in 2007-08.

What could it be? We'll offer up a good guess, one the market is discounting.

Seldom does a stock index rise so much, for so little reason, as the Dow did on the open Tuesday morning: 115 Dow points on a rumor that Greece is going to get a second bailout.

Let's step back for a moment: The Greek crisis is first and foremost about the German and French banks that were foolish enough to lend money to Greece in the first place. What sort of derivative contracts tied to Greek debt are they sitting on? What worldwide mayhem would ensue if Greece didn't pay back 100 centimes on the euro?

That's a rhetorical question, since the balance sheets of European banks are even more opaque than American ones. Whatever the actual answer, it's scary enough that the European Central Bank has refused to entertain any talk about the holders of Greek sovereign debt taking a haircut, even in the form of Greece stretching out its payments.

That was the preferred solution among German leaders. But it seems the ECB is about to get its way. Greece will likely get another bailout – 30 billion euros on top of the 110 billion euro bailout it got a year ago.

It will accomplish nothing. Going deeper into hock is never a good way to get out of debt. And at some point, this exercise in kicking the can has to stop. When it does, you get your next financial crisis.

And what of the derivatives sitting on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve? Here's another factor behind our heightened state of alert.

"Through quantitative easing efforts alone," says Euro Pacific Capital's Michael Pento, "Ben Bernanke has added $1.8 trillion of longer-term GSE debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS)."

Think about that for a moment. The Fed's entire balance sheet totaled around $800 billion before the 2008 crash, nearly all of it Treasuries. Now the Fed holds more than double that amount in mortgage derivatives alone, junk that the banks needed to clear off their own balance sheets.

"As the size of the Fed's balance sheet ballooned," continues Mr. Pento, "the dollar amount of capital held at the Fed has remained fairly constant. Today, the Fed has $52.5 billion of capital backing a $2.7 trillion balance sheet.

"Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30-to-1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets and is levered 51-to-1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2%, the Fed itself would be wiped out."

Mr. Pento's and Mr. Mobius' views line up with our own, which we laid out during interviews on our trip to China this month.

An Eye on the Next Financial Crisis by Addison Wiggin originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

Pakistan has 181million people : equivalent to India's 10 years population increase

India is currently the 2nd most populated countries after China.
However it's on target to surpass China in the next 20 years or so.

India's decade growth in population is about 189 million people.
Wow ! Thats like a lot of people, almost like a continent by itself.
Definitely more than a lot of countries population.

And surprise surprise, it's almost the equivalent of Pakistan which has 181 million people.
A whole Pakistan in 10 years.

The surprise element for me is to know Pakistan has 181 million people.
Almost half of USA.
More than Thailand.
More than Vietnam.


http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=9121

Middle East Call Center Business expanding.

Middle East Call Center Business expanding. Cutting unemployment rate in the Arab World. A region with high percentage of young people & call center is a labour intensive business able to absorb the people.


http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20110601051914

16% of World Equities but only 2% represented by US emerging market fund.

Asia ex-Japan account for 16% of Global Equities however only have 2% of US portfolio. Under weighted ?

2 Speed Economy , 2 classes of People

This so called 2 speed economy seems to be prevalent everywhere, and even in Australia is even more so. Those stuck in the local economy jobs is stuck. Those even not graduate or professionals but skilled and plugged into the global economy is getting all the riches. 

For example , in Australia compared to Singapore is sort of a U-shape graph, between earning power and professional/skills. 

The lower "educated" people if they are willing to work in the mines can get even $85k as a kitchen hand. .....

So thanks to China and US pumping money into the system inducing growth by lending, a 2 speed or even 3 speed economy has resulted. Between people paid by the hour. People paid by % of business profits regardless.

So as long as the job is plug into the global money flow, it's alright. So how to take care of the poor ??
By capitalism ? Rich get richer, poor get poorer.
By communism ? Rich get richer, poor stay poor
By Socialism ? Rich get richer, poor stay poor.
Unless the rich give away to the poor and a  modern Robin hood appear. 

And SG has somehow gotten itself into a niche spot as a global business center servicing the global companies as a tax and regulatory haven, at the expense of the citizen wittingly or unwittingly.Hence all steam forward as China mature financially and the emerging markets develop nicely. GDP growth and wealth should accumulate to the National Reserves while the citizens remain asset rich, cash poor. 

How to ever solve this problem ? Can the system lift the minimum wealth level as measured by cash of ordinary citizen ? Is there a valve to net cash back to the citizens ?


18 Facts about China That Will Blow Your Mind

http://www.businessinsider.com/facts-about-china-blow-your-mind-2011-5#so-what-happens-if-china-crashes-20

Which 10 US States will get murdered if China slows ?

http://www.businessinsider.com/states-export-most-china-2011-11#9-north-carolina-2

Rise and Fall of Commodities Prices

Looks like Silver is the most volatile of the lot.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1392891/Are-gold-silver-oil-heading-fall.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Western Australia - Colin Barnett

The Mines' capital of the world wants to meet with the factory of the world. Premier of Western Australia, Colin Barnett, representative of the raw material capital of the world wants a stronger link with the Factory of the World. The Companies of the West & the world buys from the Factory who gets a substantial share of it's raw material from Western Australia.

Colin Barnett, Premier of the State that plays a crucial part in this production supply chain has a vision not necessary for Australia but definitely wants to make his mark and difference in and for WA.

After Barnaby Joyce of Queensland, Colin Barnett will be the next visionary and entrepreneurial premier.


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http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Kevin-Rudd-China-government-consumption-growth-Rab-pd20110531-HD5EN?opendocument&src=rss

West Australian Premier Colin Barnett's bold claim on Friday that his state was looking "over the horizon" past Canberra to forge stronger links with China capped off a few weeks of strong rhetoric from our politicians on relations with our biggest trading partner.

Barnett's comments should be viewed in the context of his state's running battle with the federal government over mining tax royalties, but they nonetheless highlighted the complex and multi-tiered way that Australian governments and businesses engage with China.

Why Hedge Fund Mania ? &......Infrastructure Mania

http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/05/pensions-leap-back-to-hedge-funds.html

On the other hand, the mania with hedge funds is sowing the seeds of the next financial crisis. It won't happen anytime soon, but when billions are being poured into hedge funds, regulators better pay attention to macro systemic risk. The role that large hedge funds and large bank prop desks played during the last credit crisis is still poorly understood. Economists still can't figure out the linkage between hedge fund asset growth, liquidity, credit conditions, financial leverage, asset bubbles, financial crisis and their effect on the real economy.

Over the last two and half years, I've been getting blasted on Zero Hedge for telling investors to keep buying the dips. My view remains that the financial oligarchs will do whatever it takes to reflate risk assets and introduce some inflation in the system. By allocating more and more assets into hedge funds, public pension funds are able to bypass the leverage constraints they have in their traditional assets and they are also introducing a boom in liquidity into the global financial system, thus helping the financial oligarchs achieve their goal of relating risk assets and introducing inflation in the economic system. Absolutely nothing has changed, which is one reason why I expect a lot less volatility going forward (less, not more because everyone will be bidding up risk assets).

Eventually the music will stop, most likely when the Fed signals the start of a rate hike campaign, but there is so much liquidity and leverage in the financial system that it will take several rate hikes before we see speculative activity tapering off in any meaningful way. In the meantime, global pensions and sovereign wealth funds will keep pouring billions into hedge funds and other alternative asset classes.

What are infrastructure investments?

http://www.ceoforum.com.au/article-detail.cfm?cid=6309&t=/Kirsty-MackayFisher-Berkley-Group/Understanding-infrastructure-investments

What are infrastructure investments?
-----------------------------------------------
There are various definitions of what constitutes infrastructure, but generally infrastructure refers to the large-scale public systems, services, and facilities of a country or region that are necessary for economic activity. The sector tends to be separated into two broad subsets - economic and social. Economic infrastructure includes highways, water and sewerage facilities, and energy distribution and telecommunication networks whereas social infrastructure encompasses schools, universities, hospitals, public housing and prisons.

Infrastructure assets are generally characterised by high development costs (high barriers to entry) and long lives. They are generally managed and financed on a long-term basis. Historically it was seen as the role of the government to fund and manage these assets for the good of the population. Today, the role of the government as the provider of public services is increasingly being questioned both in terms of the absolute cost to taxpayers and as to whether a government can deliver the assets as efficiently as a private company competing for the privilege. From the government's perspective there is a strong case for privatisation, where the debt raised by the private partner remains on their balance sheets, not on that of the Treasury's. These factors have resulted in a gradual migration from the public provision of infrastructure to the private sector. The private provision of these assets may take many forms from joint ventures, concessions and franchises through to straight delivery contracts. Essentially the private sector is being brought in to design, build, finance and/or maintain public sector assets in return for long term contracted payments from the government or access to the revenues generated from the asset.

From Equities to Infrastructure

Brown Outs. Australia. Developed nation, First world faces brown outs? The global investment theme is Infrastructure investment. Whether it's America or China. Australia or Indonesia. Looks like it's going to be a decade of repairs.

Funds flow analysis. From money reservoirs like pension funds, super annuation to infrastructure projects.

From equities, basically stock market to infrastructure investment.


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http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/NBN-broadband-infrastructure-Telstra-brown-outs-IR-pd20110531-HCSJF?opendocument&src=rss

As I thought about what Eddington said I realised that higher interest rates, the carbon mess, the big investment in housing and other forces have lessened the community's ability to raise the capital needed to fund city and other non-mining infrastructure. Banks are going to need local capital to lessen their dependence on overseas borrowing while the value of non-mining equity is under pressure given current conditions.

The only way to raise hundreds of billions on the local market is to entice superannuation funds to invest in infrastructure instead of equity or other interest bearing securities. Eddington doesn't favour compulsion. Almost certainly overseas investors will be required.

Chevron : CVX

CVX is in a triangular consolidation pattern.
Waiting for a breakout.

Monday, May 30, 2011

Emerging mkt equity funds see outflow of $1 bn last week

DISH

Q : which of this DISH chart is correct ?

Has DISH just traced out a complex a-b-c-d-e Wave 4 ?
and heading towards WAVE 5 ?
(take note that hourly chart is extreme O/B)

Or has it just as the hourly chart suggest, prices has topped out a 5th wave ?





AT&T

AT&T : T

Another final 5th wave up ?






Yes ! Put Western Australia on the World Financial Map

Go Colin Go !
Put WA on the world map.

Joining a line of dignitaries visiting the Queen. This is Colin Barnett's turn to go to London.
To discuss the Queens' traveling arrangement for her visit to Perth. Ummm... Ok, maybe that's a politically correct protocol, but please don't patronize the readers if it's not.

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/premier-to-meet-queen-on-12day-tour-20110530-1fc4k.html

Play Natural Gas, Buy Russia's Gazprom

http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/2011/05/29/why-russias-gazprom-is-a-buy/

Hedge Fund News

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20110529/REG/305299994

OPEC fiscal oil production break even price rises to $85 & projected $110 in 2011

Fiscal break even prices for oil production in OPEC country including Suadi Arabia rises to fund Increase spending & development in the region especially in light of the recent Political development nicknamed Arab Spring.

So why does Prince Alaweed say price will come down to $70-$80.

Is there some political wrangling going on here ?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/arab-oil-faces-higher-break-even-price-2011-05-29?pagenumber=2

Saturday, May 28, 2011

The World needs Major Repair : $6 Trillion dollar Overhaul bill

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/05/27/global-infrastructure-a-6-trillion-opportunity/

Each week, more than one million people are either born in or migrate to cities around the world. Much of this rapid urbanization comes from the emerging world, putting tremendous pressure on that country's feeble infrastructure. Pipes burst, roads are jammed, the water is tainted and the lights even go out.

Merrill Lynch estimates that $6 trillion will need to be spent by selected emerging market countries over the next three years to meet the basic needs of these citizens. Water, transportation and energy investments will consume the bulk of these funds, accounting for 82 percent of total projected spending. Nearly every emerging market country Merrill researched will make an investment in all three.

While each developing country could benefit from an upgrade, needs vary. This table details how different emerging market countries stand up against each other in terms of quality for the country's roads, rails, ports, etc. We've highlighted the specific areas where the countries rank in the bottom half among the 133 surveyed by the World Bank.

Hedge Funds heads East : $3,000,000,000,000 ( $3 trillion) by 2013

Hedge Funds heads East : $3,000,000,000,000 ( $3 trillion) by 2013. Singapore wants to be the home of it. At least be the Business Center for Hedge Funds, providing, banking & IT support services. Which could mean also a tax & regulatory haven for Global companies & Funds.

Asia thru trade surplus and savings has pooled a sizable reservoir of monies over the 2 decades. According to some report, 80% Total bank deposits in China belongs to 20% of the depositors base making any movement even easier as the decision making is in the hands of the few.

Hedge Funds are taps of this Reservoir of Monies.


http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Deutsche-Bank-sees-five-Asia-billion-dollar-hedge-1399648.php

"It reflects the macro-economic situation that has developed globally," Bausano said Thursday. "We definitely see an increasing movement of activities East. There's demand for really high-quality groups that can run capital in sophisticated hedge-fund strategies that are capable of giving the types of risk-adjusted returns their end investors are demanding."

Global hedge fund assets may hit $3 trillion by the end of 2013, Bausano said. Hedge Fund Research Inc. estimated the assets at a record $2.02 trillion by March this year.

Pension plans in developed countries, sovereign wealth funds and endowments are looking for higher returns than those offered by passive investments such as exchange-traded funds to bankroll expected liabilities as their populations age, he added.

"If your asset-liability mismatch is growing because of demographics, you need to ensure that part of your portfolio incorporates higher-yielding assets, like hedge funds, to close the gap," he said.