Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Civicism - The New foreign Policy word

This article in Foreign Policy is not so much about the departure of Lee Kuan Yew from 50years of Singapore politics but about touting a new thinking in an individuals identity in an increasing borderless world. An old word in a new packaging, the in word is Civicism. The author listed 3 cosmopolitan cities.

Yes cities not countries. So in the post modern concept of a borderless world, you have a choice of cities to choose to live. The 3 are New York, London and Abu Dhabi. And yes again, Abu Dhabi is also welcome now into the Cosmopolitan world. And implied but not said is Singapore which the then prime minister, Goh Chok Tong famously coined the phrase, "Cosmo and Heartlanders".

In other word The Rich and The Poor. To live well in the post modern world is to be a Cosmo and not a heartlander who has the land at heart but has no means to enjoy. The Cosmos are the global citizen crisscrossing borders.

Interestingly the Author continues to say :
a "New Left Consensus" has emerged in which pro-investment and pro-poor policies are pursued, irrespective of election outcomes.

Unfortunately although left to be seen, can a Pro-Investment Policy live within a Pro-Poor policy ? Or should I say Does a Pro-Poor policy exist in a Pro-investment Policy ? What it mean practically is this, in the final analysis the politicians, who represents the people, who do they side ? In a democracy, the politicians are elected and represent the people. They represent the people in this Post-Modern world to the Global Investment sets. Can they do it ? Between the homeless in one extreme and the pin-suit and tie investment bankers, who will they choose ? As far as east and west, Hobos and Bankers dont go hand in hand.

Take a look at Abu Dhabi, the new poster child of cosmopolitanism. Is there a divide between the top and bottom. Watch this space. As surely as the sun rises, Middle east will be transformed to be a jewel not only Oasis in the Desert. It will be the new Financial Center backed by Oil, Commodities and other treasures literally beneath their feet. A touted figure is as much as $1Trillion in Afghanistan alone. Take these round figures with a pinch of salt but even giving and taking the numbers is still huge and able to pay for the cost of war many times over that is paid by taxpayers while the revenues....ummm...wonder where it goes.


http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/24/leekuanyewistan_forever?page=0,1


Excert from the article
But as the octogenarian exits the stage, the challenge is how to inspire a new generation of public servants to advance the Singapore model rather than just materialism. Patriotism may no longer be Singapore's goal, but rather a more postmodern concept suited to the increasingly multiethnic landscapes of the world's leading cities: stakeholdership. Cosmopolitan capitals like New York, London, and Abu Dhabi don't necessarily offer citizenship or even permanent residency to their many multinational residents. Instead, the real race is to offer a sense of belonging and opportunity; a new passport is not the key to loyalty. It is this individual buy-in that will engender what scholars Daniel A. Bell and Avner de-Shalit call "civicism" in their forthcoming book The Spirit of Cities. Rather than nationalism, it is civicism, or pride in one's city, that is destined to become the dominant "ism" of the 21st century.

The U.S.A's 1 Trillion Afghanistan Jackpot.

The U.S.A's 1 Trillion Afghanistan Jackpot.
The Spoil of War.
Vast natural deposits of Gold, Iron, Copper & Lithium.

The untapped riches of Afghanistan is now materializing
thanks to the Americans.
Without the resources of these liberators' finances and machinery
the treasure will still remain buried for centuries.

The riches of Afghans now in the hands of the American bankers & military.

US & UK firms invests in Afghanistan Gold.: The Spoil of War ??!

US & UK firms invests in Afghanistan Gold.: The Spoil of War ??!


Fortune Magazine May 23rd edition run a story of US bankers namely JP Morgan invests in Afghan Gold mine.

December 14 2010, Bloomberg's article titles "Afghan government approves gold mine".

Green Coffee Moutain Roast (GMCR)

Green Moutain Coffee Roast or GMCR has been on a streak since March.
Increasing a dramatic 266% from mid $30 to $80
And why not, it's not hard to imagine with the increasing number of people addicted to their
Morning caffeine, lunch time caffeine, coffee break caffeine.

However it may have keep the heart trepidating too fast.
Prices is touching the upper line of the wave 5 trend channel.
It's been so hot that it has screeched upwards with 3 gaps in it's wake.

Wave 5 of wave 5. The caffeine effect should wear off soon.
Looking to enter for a shot at $65.
To at least closed the 1st gap down.
But for it to do it it has to crossed through the triple MA barb wire
The $70 psychological level.

Red Hat :(RHT)

A top is in place.
Prices broke out of the triangular top and have subsequently bounce up to retest the
ex-support line and continued the downward bias taking with it the 50days MA

How far will prices go ?
200days MA stands at $42.50
$40 to close gap.
Is the sentiment bear enough to go for $40 ?

Image from ArtStudio for iPad

Royal Carribean Cruise

Prices has cruised down along the top line of the trend channel the past 14 days
Narrowing and eventually broke out of the triangle top.
Which put the 4th wave firmly in place.
There is a gap left by the jump from $35 much earlier.
There was an attempt to close the void In April but was not successful.
Can prices be bear enough to fill the gap this time with the final 5th wave
Of this trend channel ?

Libya Oil Exports

Monday, May 23, 2011

Oil Democracy in the Middle East














China's Investment in Africe








Top Holders Of US debt



Top Holders Of US debt

A Chart perspective of P.I.I.G.S Debt

[Annotations on the chart are mine]
Ireland debt is resolved.
Endorsement of the Queen and the 2 US president !



Presumably the the top right quadrant is where the danger list is
Countries with High Percentage of Debt to GDP and GROWING !!
Yep ! The P.I.I.G.S,
and also US, UK, and Japan and Germany







http://kfc1973-stock.blogspot.com/2011/01/dbs-tortoises-today-hares-tomorrow.html
RedHat : RHT Monthly Chart.
Bearish Divergence detected on the longer term perspective of RedHat.
A top is put in place.
How will the prices go from here ?
3 Stops, $40, $35 and $30
1st Stop is to fill a Gap left by the earlier jump from $40 to $45.
Lets see if it will jump back down.
As Moving averages is still very much firmly trending up. Dont expect any
break of the trend.
However the volatility within the Trend could make for some interesting play.
Slowly work the prices down.





Weekly chart.
A top put in place at $48.
which is an earlier peak.
Double Top ?? Most probably.
Prices has traced a a-b-c corrective wave down from earlier peak.
and make sort of a 5 wave to what is labeled "Y"
Alternatively Prices could go sideways from here in a trading range.




DAILY CHART
------------------
Daily Chart is where the battle is fought.
Prices has closed out of the box with high volume.
Good sign the bear is winning and in control.

Question will the bear chicken out of the huge void between him now and $40
or will he make a bear leap for it.
Looks like there isnt anything much stopping him now to do it.
The weight of the market his own body weight is behind him and gravity is on his side.
Even it is below all 3 weekly Moving avearges.

Go Bear Go !

Israel-Palestine Land Conflict

Sunday, May 22, 2011

China, Japan, South Korea Grouping




Japan and South Koreas are friendly with USA.

Road to A.M.F : Asian Cousin to I.M.F. The baby is AMRO

Based in Singapore, the Macroeconomic Research Office, or AMRO, is a new regional macroeconomic surveillance and crisis management unit, launched by the ministries of finance, central banks and monetary authorities of China, Japan, South Korea and the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Armed with a $120 billion reserve pool, AMRO will offer emergency US dollar relief to any ASEAN Plus Three country to manage liquidity problems when financial turmoil arises, Wei said.

Wei said AMRO will provide contracting parties with financial loan support that is below 20 percent of the lending pool with no extra conditions attached at a time without crisis. However, 80 percent of any swaps approved will be subjected to IMF conditions.


http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90861/7382177.html

Transatlantic Stock Exchange Mergers : No MORE NYSE ??!





Regulatory Issues :
Who controls who ?
Europe Regulatory regulates US trading in Stocks and Deriavities ?

Listen to the end of the youtube segment.
Heard in passing :
A small country in Asia offers a major US bank to relocate there with
no tax and favourable regulatory regime. Stable for next 20 years.

Chart of US emerging Market Funds.





Emerging Market is a portfolio hedge against US stocks and US $.
This chart measures the amount of money invested.
Why does it look like the chart of DJIA ??
LOL !!

RIP NYSE? - German Merge With Nyse, Toronto Exchange Merge With London

Singapore Hedge Funds grew 600% in 5 years !

Singapore Hedge Funds grew 600% in 5 years.
From $10B in 2005 to $59B end of 2009.
The growing Financial Hedge Fund in Asia.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-22/singapore-to-create-most-bank-jobs-next-year.html

Back Track To 2008 : Obama in Berlin

Global Energy Super Shift ! What enchanting & charming words !

Global Energy Super Shift ! What enchanting & charming words !


O k, take this with a pinch of salt, but I receive this self proclaim Energy Expert sales email in my spam folder which I check time to time.

What caught my eye are the words "Global Energy Super Shifts." which I feel is happening as well by the piecing together of random articles from various news sources which I have also posted on this blog site.

Global Energy Super Shift ! What enchanting & charming words ! I can't help but repeat these beautiful words again !

See also my previous post on the recently touted "Peak Car" theory.


To see the entire letter click the link.
http://www.moneymappress.com/mmp-research/ECL/ECL1110695.php?code=%3C?php%20echo%20$code;%20?%3E




China wants to invest $1Trillion in US infrastructure.

China wants to invests $1 Trillion in US infrastructure as passive investors
via private & public equity partnership.
While it only currently manages $300billion dollars.

President Obama has tabled for congress to approve $500B of infrastructure improvement.


http://zazomnews.com/china-shows-interest-in-us-infrastructure-investment/442314/

Arab Countries Population

Salary of Country's leader compared to GDP

How much should a country leaders, politician be paid ?
By % of GDP per capita
BY % of Budget

From the chart below,
---------------------------
Developed countries & Big Economies' politician pay is below 10 times the
Countries' GDP per capita

In a league of their own :
The Top 4 are :
-------------------
Above 25 times
1. Kenya
2. Singapore
3. Indonesia
4. South Africa

The Top 2 are :
--------------------
Above 40 times
1. Kenya
2. Singapore

Seems like Singapore a democratic modern economy is "benchmarking" its politician pay to
3rd world developing economy countries'.


http://www.economist.com/node/16525240

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Singapore : From Financial Center to Financial Hub.

Singapore has always been known or marketing itself as a Financial center.
Now this Economist April 23-29 edition say "Financial Hub"
A Week before the Singapore general election
Which it predict confidently & correctly the incumbent political will form government again.

More importantly also before the Singapore's Sovereign Fund, the GIC 30th Anniversary.
Which the chairman says they will attract more hedge funds and use more unconventional
methods of investing or is it trading or speculation.

A center gives an impression of funds coming in.
A hub is a place of strategy coordination.

Prince William & Kate back from postponed Honeymoon, visiting America in July

Hey, check this out from CNN:
William, Catherine back home after honeymoon
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/05/21/uk.royal.couple.honeymoon/index.html


BACK FROM THE POSTPONED HONEYMOON SCHEDULED ON 30 APRIL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
They delayed leaving for their honeymoon until May 10, choosing to spend the weekend after the wedding on vacation in an undisclosed location in the United Kingdom, the royal family said.


VISIT TO USA IN JULY
------------------------------
The prince has never visited the United States in an official capacity, although he has come on a private trip. The July visit to California will be the duchess's first time in the United States, according to royal officials.

Peak Car (2011) vs Peak Oil (2004)

2004 : Peak Oil Theory : Oil Supply coming to an end : Prices will go up.
2011 : Peak Car theory : imply Lesser Demand for oil : Prices will go down


There is a new theory being touted to combat Peak Oil theory.
And that is Peak Car theory.

The opposite of it's cousin Peak Oil which suggest Oil is coming to an end.

Peak Car theory tries to give one an impression Demand is on the decrease.


Whether there is any truth in it, is yet to be seen but what is more interesting is when such
Theories are expounded it's a catalyst or pretext for market movement.

Look at the 2004 Peak Oil theory. It Precedes the dramatic increase in oil price 2004 to 2009.

Now we hear of Peak Car. Implying lesser demand for oil in the face of energy/oil supply increase as Obamas recent weeks of oil rhetoric suggest. And Shell's announcement of floating LNG plant off Western Australia & discovery of Shale gas that could be used for diesel & jet fuel.

Take a look at the Oil chart & see if it tells a story.


Sources Reference :
-------------------

1. http://www.rudi.net/node/22123


2. http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/peak-cars-our-addiction-ending

3. http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3206293.htm
.........

Australian and world peak car use per capita was in 2004 and since has shown a slow decline. It marks an end to car dependence. Teenage car use has dropped markedly. Figures suggest a big cultural shift as well as structural change within cities. Some very large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have made it almost impossible to buy a new car. Car transport has reached a limit. Shanghai built a metro system in 10 years, which covers 80% of the city and carries 8 million passengers each day. Metros are being built in 82 Chinese cities and 14 Indian cities. Peter Newman compares the cost of constructing roads and railways and says both cost about $50million per kilometre. But rail carries 8-20 times the passengers carried by road. With the price of gasoline heading north, people are moving back into cities and not wanting to be as dependant on cars as they were.



4. http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/features/is-this-the-end-of-the-car-
2286616.htm

Peak Car Theory bring touted : (2011)

2004 : Peak Oil Theory : Oil Supply coming to an end : Prices will go up.
2011 : Peak Car theory : imply Lesser Demand for oil : Prices will go down

There is a new theory being touted to combat Peak Oil theory.
And that is Peak Car theory.
The opposite of it's cousin Peak Oil which suggest Oil is coming to an end.
Peak Car theory tries to give one an impression Demand is on the decrease.

Whether there is any truth in it, is yet to be seen but what is more interesting is when such
Theories are expounded it's a catalyst or pretext for market movement.

Look at the 2004 Peak Oil theory. It Precedes the dramatic increase in oil price 2004 to 2009.

Now we hear of Peak Car. Implying lesser demand for oil in the face of energy/oil supply increase as Obamas recent weeks of oil rhetoric suggest. And Shell's announcement of floating LNG plant off Western Australia & discovery of Shale gas that could be used for diesel & jet fuel.

Take a look at the Oil chart & see if it tells a story.


Sources Reference :
-------------------
1. http://www.rudi.net/node/22123

2. http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/peak-cars-our-addiction-ending

3. http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3206293.htm
.........
Australian and world peak car use per capita was in 2004 and since has shown a slow decline. It marks an end to car dependence. Teenage car use has dropped markedly. Figures suggest a big cultural shift as well as structural change within cities. Some very large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have made it almost impossible to buy a new car. Car transport has reached a limit. Shanghai built a metro system in 10 years, which covers 80% of the city and carries 8 million passengers each day. Metros are being built in 82 Chinese cities and 14 Indian cities. Peter Newman compares the cost of constructing roads and railways and says both cost about $50million per kilometre. But rail carries 8-20 times the passengers carried by road. With the price of gasoline heading north, people are moving back into cities and not wanting to be as dependant on cars as they were.


4. http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/features/is-this-the-end-of-the-car-
2286616.html

Greece being Privatised !

Privatisation basically means in this case,
national assets are being foreclosed by the bank for
inability to pay loan


Greece succumbed.
Greece Being carved up by IMF.
At stake are the State Lottery & Airport.
No Crisis.

Advisors :
-------------
Rothschild
Lazard .
Credit Suise
HSBC


http://www.cnbc.com/id/43080750