WES : Wesfarmers A shortopportunity coming up !

Price objective to look for : $33 to $33.50

WhiteHavenCoal : WHC : Uptrend : 5th Wave

WHC : 1ct shy of my stop loss yesterday. Excellent stop picking. I sing a different song today.
Went it dived yesterday it did casue some turbulence in my stomach. Confidence was shaken. Doubts assailed. Finger pointing and self blaming. Today it recovered the whole amount. With this trade I would like to see the full result of the setup as I see it. Dont be too panicky, anxious and nervous. Put your faith not in the market but in your setup, your interpretation of the data. Be patience.

0.6998

Made 3 trades today which end in the red. 2 were forex : AudJpy. and 1 was Whitehaven coal.
Talk about WHC : Whitehaven coal first : I start with confidence level of this trade. What was the confidence level ? I would say Hopeful. Do I have to justify or did it jumped out at me ? Bigcharts on Iphone during lunch. Pattern interpretation : consolidation for another leg up. Could I name the wave ? No. But it did look like a consolidation in a up trend. Confirmed with trend line. Checked hourly chart, nothing sinister like O/B. checked candlesticks on Daily chart. Set a stop and specified a limit. The selling factor was the up trend line. Any doubts ? Well I thought it could be a end of B wave, if that was the case it could be a C wave following suit. Another thing was that prices were trapped within the upper and lower moving averages. At the trade prices was stuck on the upper moving averages. So the thinking was an imminent breakout is possible. However prices fell the 12 cents, 1 cts shy of the stop level. The compelling reason for the trade is really I do not want to walk away on an opportunity. Fear that if I dont take this trade, I lose time to build my my account equity. So becasue I do not want to lose an opportunity I risk or I dont mind losing. Its a losing proposition. No matter how good the risk reward is, the setup was never there or the timing is wrong. The thinking should be changed to, market is illusive it pays to pay with time than money. Always trade with confidence which means confirmation. Dont pre-empt which is a losing proposition. The fear of losing an opportunity will eventually lead to a loss. Let the opportunity prove itself. Dont chase it.

Analysis was correct for a 5th wave up. But the trade got stopped.

Pointers to improve trading :
Addressing Bad Habits
-----------------------------
1. Micro-managing trades on the move
2. Boredom trades.
3. Restless trades.

1. Reversal trades could be tricky
Especially before confirmation
That downtrend is confirmed. &
A reversal has taken place. A
Trend is in place. So actually 3
Questions :
1. Has a bottom been reached
2. Any sign of confirmation.
3. What is the upside ?
4. Risk/Reward ok ??
The tricky thing is to fool ourselves to enter early, thinking it's the bottom of the bottom so as to improve the risk/reward instead of
Waiting for a reversal confirmation which will we think ruin the illusive but pretty Risk/Reward.
Reversal actually refers to an end of a wave be it 1,,2,3,4,5 or A,b or C

ANZ : Range bound in the triangle : Monitor to trade

27August 2010

02August 2010

Tabcorp : "C" wave

How many days will you give for it o reach target of $6.60 ? Given Wave A has taken 3 days , I would say 7-9 days.

UK : GSK :

The 5oth Law

The 50th Law: 10 Lessons in Fearlessness

View more presentations from Robert Greene.

UK : AZN

Stick to your principles. Dont worry if you miss a trade just becasue you follow your trading rules and procedures. Always protect principal and capital. Dont take too many trades. Dont take unnecessary trades if you are not 100% confidence and sure. Dont gamble take intelligent risk. Your allegiance is not to the company or stock. Foolow your trading strategy. 99%/$1 trade. Allowing for 1% something may go wrong. $1 a trade is my objective. I wait my chance.

RIO : A short opportunity

Rio Tinto. Catch the Top or join in the band wagon to the top. IF [??] this is a 5 waves up formation. And there is reason to believe this is so. The correction from $74 seemingly the peak of wave 3 and down to $69 end of wave 4 which coincide with the peak of wave 1. Elliot rule is not broken. As the so called wave 4 did not go past wave 1 peak. But actually bouces off that support level. IF then this is a 5wave, we can predict with the wave 4, 50/50 priciple that 5th wave will reach at least $74. Wave 1 starts at $64, and wave 4 ends at $69 = $5. Applying 50/50 or $4 to $69 we have $74 which is near current levels. Prices may touch upper range of the trend channel, which may be a good place to short. Looking to do a 1:5 trade.

Low Trade productivity

Low productivity is one of the main theme so far. Need to apply Pareto Principle. 80/20 rule. As you are starting with a low base you need to concentrate maximum effort on the 1 or 2 things, dont diversify but concentrate your effort on the 20% that will give you the 80% of your returns. Be int in stock watch/selection or actual trades. Your portfolio should not be more than 3 stocks. Keep portfolio risk in check not just individual trade. Leverage with time as well. Sometimes it is more efficient to wait for the stock to run than cut the profit short once its off the gate. The first one off the gate may not be the overall winner. Have the guts to watch the race all the way to the end. So select stocks in the high teens, 20's, 30's and even 40's and apply the 2:10 risk/reward. The higher the stock price, the higher the voaltility and thus the risk of trade being stopped out. The certainity factor and confidence of the trade is required for all trades but especially so for the higher stock prices becasue of the sensitivity of the volatility. Select maybe one of the banks and miners as the staple core of trade diet. Maybe WBC and BHP. Others may include NAB, STO.....

STO : Breakout ?

Target $6.60 [Hi] $6.40 [Lo]. Prices may consolidate withing 9 & 18 days MA. And make spike to close gap at $6.60.

Logic of trade : Reversal to close gap at $6.60. Range to close $6.50-$6.60. Also areas where moving averages converged. Prices to close gap and touch closer where average proces should be. Go back to nomalcy.

UK : SSE :

WPL : woodside Petroleum : Keep an eye out to short

WPL : woodside Petroleum : Keep an eye out to short

Alumina : ?? Upside potential.

The Banks : Accumulate

The Banks : Futher Upside..... in the coming weeks with near term weakness....good for collecting....

STO : Santos : Triangular consolidation

Wait and see......

Further upside. Had originally plan to short when it tops. But that seems like its going to be a while more. Seems to have some meaningful risk/reward upside for a quick trade.

UK : BP ; Another shot at it.

Stay cautious especially with . .Conflicting signals : price pattern vs stochastics.
. Price consolidation prior to price breakout and/or confirmation.
. Generally unsure or uneasy.

WBC : upswing ??