Monday, November 1, 2010

Forget China -- This is Where You Should Invest

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Forget China -- This is Where You Should Invest

by Ryan Fuhrmann

A recent article in The Economist caught my eye, and a particular statistic I found interesting was that until 1800, China and India accounted for about half of the global economy. The Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s shifted the balance of power to Britain and Western economies for more than 200 years, but growth trends appear to be shifting again.

Out of all emerging markets, China garners a significant share of the press. This is certainly justified; its economy recently overtook Japan as the second largest in the world and has averaged +10% annual growth for about three decades now. Its population of 1.3 billion highly literate, motivated individuals is certainly nothing to sneeze at and represents one of the largest groups of burgeoning consumers in history.

There are many other impressive data points to prove that China is a great place to invest, but it may not be the best emerging economy to invest in. That title may very well go to India. There are three primary reasons why India could outperform its neighbor and emerging market archrival going forward.

The first is demographic. India has one of the youngest workforces in the world. More than 30% of its population is under 14 years of age, and more than 64% is between the ages of 15 and 64. An investment bank estimated that its working force will increase by 136 million people by 2020. In contrast, it estimates China's will grow by only 23 million during this period.

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