Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Nucear Demand by Countries and electricity production.





China now has 13 Nuclear reactors, she mines 1% of the total Uranium production.Her nuclear share of electricity production is 1.9%. In 15 years, she will have 187 nuclear reactors plus what she has now will bring it to 200 nuclear reactors. How many reactors then will China need for nuclear to have 100% share of electricity production ? 684. In 15 years time, China will have 200. Nuclear will have 30% share in electricity production from now which is about 2%[1.9%]. Ceteris paribus. Everything else being equal.
If what China mines goes into her own needs. She currently mines 1% of global production for 2% share of her own electricity production. She aims for 30%. To meet her own needs she will need to mine up to 15% of global production or meet that demand from other producing countries.
Or in other words. She now has 13 reactors. She aims for 200. About 15 times more. She only mines 1%, she will need to ramp it up by 15 times, her uranium production.
My take is this. China will be the Factory of the world for quite some time. And Australia besides Canada accounts for about 50% of production and still riched in uranium deposits will be the "raw material" of the world for quite some time.

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