Peak Car (2011) vs Peak Oil (2004)

2004 : Peak Oil Theory : Oil Supply coming to an end : Prices will go up.
2011 : Peak Car theory : imply Lesser Demand for oil : Prices will go down

There is a new theory being touted to combat Peak Oil theory.
And that is Peak Car theory.
The opposite of it's cousin Peak Oil which suggest Oil is coming to an end.
Peak Car theory tries to give one an impression Demand is on the decrease.

Whether there is any truth in it, is yet to be seen but what is more interesting is when such
Theories are expounded it's a catalyst or pretext for market movement.

Look at the 2004 Peak Oil theory. It Precedes the dramatic increase in oil price 2004 to 2009.

Now we hear of Peak Car. Implying lesser demand for oil in the face of energy/oil supply increase as Obamas recent weeks of oil rhetoric suggest. And Shell's announcement of floating LNG plant off Western Australia & discovery of Shale gas that could be used for diesel & jet fuel.

Take a look at the Oil chart & see if it tells a story.


Sources Reference :
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1. http://www.rudi.net/node/22123

2. http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/peak-cars-our-addiction-ending

3. http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3206293.htm
.........
Australian and world peak car use per capita was in 2004 and since has shown a slow decline. It marks an end to car dependence. Teenage car use has dropped markedly. Figures suggest a big cultural shift as well as structural change within cities. Some very large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have made it almost impossible to buy a new car. Car transport has reached a limit. Shanghai built a metro system in 10 years, which covers 80% of the city and carries 8 million passengers each day. Metros are being built in 82 Chinese cities and 14 Indian cities. Peter Newman compares the cost of constructing roads and railways and says both cost about $50million per kilometre. But rail carries 8-20 times the passengers carried by road. With the price of gasoline heading north, people are moving back into cities and not wanting to be as dependant on cars as they were.


4. http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/features/is-this-the-end-of-the-car-
2286616.htm